Election Predictions | Ewan Goodjohn

Here you will find my poll-based UK, Scottish, Welsh and US Election Predictions. My methodology is at the bottom of the page.

Here you will also find custom consoles from which you can make your own prediction using my model of the UK, Scottish or Welsh Parliaments.

Make Your Own Prediction

Methodology

The UK General Election, Scottish and Welsh Parliaments models are a poll-based, personal version of the Strong Transition Model. In simple terms, if a party holds more percentage of the vote in a particular constituency than nationwide, then a certain amount of those voters will be counted as "strong" and unwinnable by other parties in that constituency. The "weak" voters will be the ones that are swayed by the national swing which is based on a polling average. After all parties vote in the constituency is adjusted, any remaining "swing" voters are redistributed into the parties based on local party support and adjustments are made if the total votes are over or under 100%. I do not predict seats in Northern Ireland due to a lack of polling, I do use Scotland and Wales only polls for Scottish and Welsh constituencies in the GE. English constituencies will be swung based on GB & UK polls adjusted for what the Welsh and Scottish polls say. Instead of using the previous election figure, I use an average of different recent MRP data as base figures.

BNV = Base National Vote

BLV = Base Local Vote

All parties' Local Swing will be adjusted to total 100%

Swing Voters are total votes lost after decreasing other parties

Party increasing vote share:

Poll / BNV * BLV = Local Swing

BLV + LS * Swing Voters = Local Vote Share

Party decreasing vote share:

If BNV > BLV:

BLV * Poll / BNV = Local Vote Share

If BLV > BNV:
(BLV + BNV) / 2 * Poll / BNV + (BLV - BNV) / 2 = Local Vote Share